SHRINKING CIVIC SPACE AND COVID-19 A COCKTAIL OF CHALLENGES FOR ZAMBIA’S ELECTIONS

ZAMBIA faces unique challenges as the country goes to yet another tightly contested and heavily polarizing presidential, parliamentary and local government election. The elections come on the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic which has not only affected the way the elections will be conducted but also presents an election campaign issue in itself.

President Edgar Lungu is seeking to be elected Zambian President for the third time amidst a debt crisis and an economy in near recession after his bid for a third term was upheld by the country’s Constitutional Court.

However one Constitutional Court Judge Professor Margaret Munalula offered a dissenting judgment in which she argued that the 19 month period President Edgar Lungu spent in office between January 2015 and September 2016 constituted a full term of office. She adds that President Lungu has therefore twice held office and is ineligible to run for office in the forthcoming presidential election. However the majority decision stands.

It is widely perceived as yet another two horse race between President Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front and his main challenger Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development UPND). In the 2016 election Lungu beat Hichilema by more than 50% of the vote, Hichilema received almost 48%. Lungu polled a total of 1,860,877 whilst Hichilema polled 1,760,347.

Some analysts have predicted that this will be the toughest race for President Lungu as the gap is expected to reduce given the heightened poverty levels and high cost of living among majority Zambians whilst ruling party supporters flaunt their wealth with impunity. This may also be the last attempt at the Presidency by UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema.

Some opinion poll whose credibility cannot be verified put Edgar Lungu ahead of Hakainde claiming he was poised to win by 61%. An analysis of the “bogus” polls that worked in favour of President Lungu is available here.

Widespread concerns have arisen on whether Zambia is capable of having free and credible elections in an environment where the exercise of civic rights is highly constrained. The Police have continued with selective application of the Public Order Act to curtail the opposition from mobilising and conducting peaceful campaigns.

The ruling party and its supporters have gone on rampage tearing down posters and billboards of the UPND candidate Hichilema and beating up his supporters. The ruling party runs small militia like groups whose specialisation is beating up opponents and instilling fear in supporters of the opposition,

On 28^th June, 2021 Amnesty International released a report in which it raised serious concern with the deteriorating human rights situation in Zambia ahead of the polls.

“What we have seen in Zambia, especially in the past five years, is an increasingly brutal crackdown on human rights, characterized by brazen attacks on any form of dissent,” said Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa.

“Opposition leaders, journalists, media houses and activists have all been targeted, and speaking out against allegations of government corruption or abuse has become more dangerous.  Protests have been stopped or dispersed with unlawful and sometimes lethal force, and people who speak up against allegations of corruption have been intimidated and harassed.”

Amnesty International’s report documents the deterioration of Zambia’s human rights record over the past five years, when president Lungu came into power, and outlines how censorship, excessive use of force by the police, arbitrary arrests and detention have created a climate of fear and impunity.

“What we have seen in Zambia, especially in the past five years, is an increasingly brutal crackdown on human rights, characterized by brazen attacks on any form of dissent,” said Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa.

“Opposition leaders, journalists, media houses and activists have all been targeted, and speaking out against allegations of government corruption or abuse has become more dangerous.  Protests have been stopped or dispersed with unlawful and sometimes lethal force, and people who speak up against allegations of corruption have been intimidated and harassed.”

Amnesty International’s report documents the deterioration of Zambia’s human rights record over the past five years, when president Lungu came into power, and outlines how censorship, excessive use of force by the police, arbitrary arrests and detention have created a climate of fear and impunity.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia has issued regulations on the conduct of elections which include a total ban on campaign rallies and road shows. Political parties have had to use alternative means of communication to conduct campaigns. President Lungu has been traversing the country on a campaign trail formerly referred to as ‘inspection of development projects” and most recently to check on compliance in the COVID-19 guidelines and distribution of Facemasks.

In response to President Lungu strategy the opposition have also taken to meet the public to also distribute masks. Opposition Patriots for Economic Progress PEP leader Sean Tembo said he would also go around the country to inspect the poverty levels among Zambians.

Following a thunderous welcome opposition leader Hichilema received in North Western Province during his national facemask distribution Police Inspector General Kakoma Kanganja banned the distribution of Facemasks by politicians however the ban did not seem to affect President Lungu.

 One nauseating political factor ahead of the polls is the false is the rise in politically instigated violence. This has made the Electoral Commission of Zambia to cancel campaigns in various districts at different periods. The rise in violence targeted at the opposition by ruling party elements is one of the biggest reasons why the ruling party is becoming increasingly unpopular.